Домой Стиль Жизни Описан «кошмарный сценарий» для Турции в Сирии

Описан «кошмарный сценарий» для Турции в Сирии

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Описан «кошмарный сценарий» для Турции в Сирии

Утрата контроля над приграничными северными территориями Сирии, полученного в результате военных операций «Щит Евфрата» и «Оливковая ветвь», будет означать «кошмарный сценарий» для Турции. Такое мнение в материале для Al-Monitor высказал бывший турецкий военный советник Метин Гюркан (Metin Gurcan).

«Сирийский режим действительно может обратить внимание на Африн (западная часть так называемого Сирийского Курдистана, с 2018 года контролируется сирийской вооруженной оппозицией и армией Турции — прим. «Ленты.ру») после взятия центра Идлиба», — пишет колумнист.

Кроме того, Гюркан описал подробности стратегии Анкары в отношении Идлиба, где сирийская армия активно ведет наступление. «Турция пытается заставить Москву организовать новые переговоры о перемирии в Идлибе. Как только это будет сделано, она планирует запросить у России гарантии того, что сирийский режим позволит Турции сохранить свое военное присутствие в Африне, а также в районе Джераблуса, Аль-Рай и Аль-Баба (приграничные города сирийской провинции Алеппо — прим. «Ленты.ру»)», — объяснил автор.

Единственной возможностью добиться переговоров о перемирии в Идлибе является наращивание сухопутной группировки войск в Идлибе, что и происходит в последние дни, полагает Гюркан. «У Турции нет иного выбора кроме как увеличить свое военное присутствие в Идлибе, чтобы надавить на Москву угрозой для жизни турецких солдат», — добавил он. Сейчас в данном регионе, как указывается в материале, размещены около девяти тысяч турецких военнослужащих, в том числе подразделения спецназа, также туда переброшены бронетехника, артиллерия и ракетные установки; по информации Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, со 2 по 10 февраля в Идлиб и Алеппо прибыли в общей сложности почти полторы тысячи турецких грузовиков и тягачей с танками.

Переговоры по деэскалации конфликта, начатые 8 февраля в Анкаре с участием российской делегации, фактически сорвались на второй день после того, как стало известно об обстреле сирийской армией позиций турецкой армии, в результате которого погибли пять военнослужащих, а спецпредставителю президента России по Сирии Александру Лаврентьеву, как передавала газета Daily Sabah, было заявлено о неприемлемости таких действий. Гюркан предположил, что ускорить процесс прежде, чем армия Сирии займет Идлиб, можно было бы с помощью личной встречи президента Турции Реджепа Тайипа Эрдогана с российским коллегой Владимиром Путиным, однако вопрос о готовности Кремля на переговоры на высшем уровне остается открытым, поскольку пока неясно, как российский лидер отреагирует на действия Анкары в Идлибе. Официальный Кремль говорил о беспокойстве происходящим в регионе и в то же время подчеркивал недопустимость активности боевиков.

Сирийская армия активизировала действия против боевиков в Идлибе, где сконцентрированы последние группировки вооруженной оппозиции и тех, кого Дамаск считает террористами, в январе, несмотря на инициированный Россией и Турцией режим прекращения огня. В результате наступления правительственным силам удалось занять почти половину Идлибской зоны деэскалации, включая несколько крупных городов и ключевых автотрасс. В феврале нескольким ударам подверглись позиции турецкой армии, которая в общей сложности потеряла убитыми 12 военнослужащих и одного гражданского специалиста. В ответ были нанесены удары по более чем ста целям, также неизвестными был сбит сирийский вертолет в небе над Идлибом. Президент Эрдоган заявлял, что 12 февраля анонсирует новые меры в отношении сирийских войск.

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